NWS Mobile local statement
Issued Fri 1:09 PM CDT (18:09Z). The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Mobile AL around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
Major Hurricane Isaias continues to move towards the north-northeast near 16 mph toward the north central Gulf Coast. Isaias is expected to still be a damaging hurricane when it makes landfall this evening. It is important not to focus just on the center as the wind field will expand by landfall, resulting in the potential for significant wind impacts and a life threatening storm surge along and to the east of where the hurricane makes landfall. In addition, strong wind gusts are expected to develop west of the center across extreme southwest Alabama late this afternoon into the early evening hours, with gusts in excess of 80 mph possible.
Peak storm surge inundation of 6 to 9 feet above normally dry ground is possible along the coast of the western Florida panhandle. Evacuation orders have been issued by some coastal counties and you should check with your local emergency management agency for the latest information.
Those in the hurricane warning need to prepare for damaging hurricane force winds of 74 to 110 mph, potentially stronger, especially across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. The strongest winds will occur near and just to the east of the center. Potential impacts from these winds include numerous downed trees and power lines, significant power outages, and some roof damage. Tropical storm force winds will spread well inland with hurricane force gusts likely into south central Alabama as the center of Isaias quickly moves north.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across southwest ALabama, south central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. Localized amounts of 10 to 12 inches are possible in bands across the Florida Panhandle and near the center track of the storm. Areas of flooding are likely if the higher amounts are realized, with considerable impacts possible. In addition, there is an increasing risk for tornadoes as early as this afternoon and into tonight east of where the central Isaias tracks. The greatest threat will be across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama.
Storm information: About 170 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 140 miles south of Pensacola FL · 28.4N 87.2W · Storm Intensity 120 mph · Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 16 mph
Potential impacts for the region (full text)
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal portions of the western Florida panhandle
and Alabama. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across the western Florida Panhandle, portions of southwestern
Alabama and portions of south central Alabama. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across inland southeast Mississippi, far inland
southwest Alabama, and south central Alabama.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across all of southwest and south central Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across interior southeast Mississippi.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across northwest Florida and south central Alabama. Potential
impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southwest Alabama.
